---
title: >-
  Population-level viremia predicts HIV incidence at the community level across
  the Universal Testing and Treatment Trials in eastern and southern Africa.
description: >-
  Explore this publication on real-world evidence: Population-level viremia
  predicts HIV incidence at the community level across the Universal Testing
  and…
date: '2023-01-01'
category: Publications
tags:
  - Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership
  - HIV
  - Abstract/Manuscript
  - University of California San Francisco
  - University of California Berkeley
  - Care
  - 'No'
  - Health System Partner
  - Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
  - Methods/Pharmacoepi
  - R&D
canonical_url: >-
  https://www.headwaterscience.com/resources/publications/acad-botswana-harvard-aids-institute-partnership/population-level-viremia-predicts-hiv-incidence-at-the/
source: Headwater Science
license: © 2026 Headwater Science. All rights reserved.
slug: population-level-viremia-predicts-hiv-incidence-at-the
id: 4mR1qyvKixunQIlLIg1Q2e
contentType: article
---

## Challenge

Across the four UTT trials, the relationship between population-level HIV viremia and HIV incidence had not been quantified in a pooled analysis, limiting the ability to use viremia as a monitoring metric.

## Solution

Target RWE's HIV team and multi-trial collaborators conducted a pooled analysis across 105 communities from four UTT trials to quantify the linear relationship between population-level viremia and HIV incidence using parametric g-computation.

## Impact

Establishing that population-level viremia is a strong predictor of community-level HIV incidence validates viremia as a monitoring metric for treatment-as-prevention programs and quantifies the incidence reduction expected from targeted viremia reduction.

## Use Cases / Links

Population-level HIV viremia as incidence prediction metric for treatment-as-prevention monitoring, Cross-UTT-trial pooled incidence-viremia dose-response evidence for prevention program design