Population-level viremia predicts HIV incidence at the community level across the Universal Testing and Treatment Trials in eastern and southern Africa.

Across the four UTT trials, the relationship between population-level HIV viremia and HIV incidence had not been quantified in a pooled analysis, limiting the ability to use viremia as a monitoring metric.

Target RWE's HIV team and multi-trial collaborators conducted a pooled analysis across 105 communities from four UTT trials to quantify the linear relationship between population-level viremia and HIV incidence using parametric g-computation.

Establishing that population-level viremia is a strong predictor of community-level HIV incidence validates viremia as a monitoring metric for treatment-as-prevention programs and quantifies the incidence reduction expected from targeted viremia reduction.

Population-level HIV viremia as incidence prediction metric for treatment-as-prevention monitoring, Cross-UTT-trial pooled incidence-viremia dose-response evidence for prevention program design